The overall trend of the plastic market is strong
The overall trend of the plastic market is strong
The steep rise in international oil prices has provided support for domestic plastic prices. International oil prices extended gains on August 16, hit more than 5 weeks at the highest level, one of the main driving factor is still the markets are betting that producers will be meeting next month to take action, stable oil market together. Nigeria's crude oil production continues to be a drag on the armed attack, which has slipped to 700,000 b/d, providing support for oil prices. International oil prices have risen by 10 per cent in the three trading days to August 15. U.S. WTI crude oil futures hit an intraday high of $46.52 a barrel, up much from the $40 a barrel level two weeks ago. Brent crude futures hit an intraday high of $49.10 a barrel. Driven by the oil price, the plastic market price stabilised, the overall trend is strong, the low price continues to decrease, the downstream with the purchase, the merchants continue to wait and see. Moreover, the high season of plastic consumption in China, the enthusiasm for the demand of plastic materials has brought the trend of plastic prices to rise and fall easily. As the application of plastics in people's life is becoming more and more widespread, the demand for plastic raw materials is constantly improving. With the rapid development of China's economy, China's express service business volume totaled 20.67 billion units in 2015, with an annual increase of 48%. In 2015, China consumed 2.96 billion plastic woven bags, 8.26 billion plastic bags, 9.9 billion bags of boxes, 16.95 billion meters of tape, and 2.97 billion buffers against impact. The rapid rise of express industry has led to the rapid development of plastic packaging industry. This growth momentum will continue in 2016. The take-out restaurant industry has also become a new user of plastic products in China. In recent years, online ordering has gradually come into people's life, and more and more people have started to use mobile phone APP or phone to order takeout to solve the food problem. A large number of catering packaging requirements have also been generated. According to the data released by Meituan takeout, hungry and baidu takeout, the three delivery platforms are about 7 million daily orders. Accordingly can roughly calculate a bill, according to every single delivery with a plastic bag, each bag to 0.06 square meters, plastic bags every delivery of up to 420000 square meters, equivalent to 59 the size of a football field. In addition, with the development of the automobile industry, the use of automobile plastic has increased sharply. On the vehicle, either within the outer decoration such as instrument panel, door board, vice dashboard, glove box cover, seat, back guard board, etc., or function and structure, etc., the shadow of the plastic parts can be seen everywhere. It is no exaggeration to say that car lightweight requirements provide a wide market for the use of plastic. The plastic market of polyurethane and nylon material is further expanded. The brics countries (Russia, China, Brazil and India) are reported to have a market capitalisation of $112.44 billion in 2014, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 15.4 per cent between 2015 and 2020. By 2020, the global automotive plastic market composite annual growth rate is expected to reach 13 percent. According to statistics, there are dozens of plastic varieties of automobile, and the average amount of plastic used for each car is 5% ~ 10% of the car's weight. With the development of lightweight vehicle and the expansion of automotive plastic technology, the use of automobile plastic will increase further. In addition, the third quarter is China's agricultural film demand peak season, market orders or some increase, the overall profit in August is slightly stronger than the bearish. In addition, to prolong the maintenance of coal and lanzhou petrochemical equipment, tianjin zhongsha parking in the same time, alleviated the supply pressure, also gave rise impetus to the plastic market. In the short term, however, it is hard for OPEC members to agree on a freeze on oil production, and oil is still in a relatively oversupply phase. In addition, the consumption of crude oil in developed economies has been declining year by year, and the consumption share of emerging economies in China, India and Brazil is rising, but there is limited scope for future demand. The most important point is that oil is negatively correlated with the dollar, and oil prices will be affected by expectations of a rate rise in the dollar, with future oil price gains limited. And the trend of international oil price is related to the trend of domestic plastic market. International oil prices in the future is not a strong bullish case, even if the domestic plastic market downstream demand is expected to start in succession, to supply tight, but this is limited to boost market sentiment and the actual supply is not nervous.
