Analysis on the status quo of Chinese polyolefin industry pattern
Analysis on the status quo of Chinese polyolefin industry pattern
At present, China has become one of the world's largest producers of polyolefin production and is gradually becoming the largest market for polyolefin consumption in the world. Through the rapid development in recent years, the total production of polyolefins in China has already been quite large. By 2014, the total production of polyolefins in China has reached 3,206.8 tons, and the output is expected to be 262.935 million tons. But these products are still far from being able to meet the country's growing demand. Among them, the total output of polyethylene in our country can reach 149.88 million tons, producing about 12.56 million tons. The total output of polypropylene can reach 16.68 million tons, and the yield is about 13.74 million tons. After the new round of expansion in 2013-2014, the new production capacity boom will continue in 2015. The new capacity of polyethylene is expected to be 1.2 million tons, and the production capacity of polypropylene will be 2.59 million tons. The equipment that will be put into production will continue to be a coal olefin device, which will further break the single industry pattern of olefins and realize the diversification of raw materials. As can be seen from the installation area we planned to put into production, the new devices are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions. This will make the distribution pattern of polyolefin in China more reasonable, and also in line with the strategy of the state to promote the development of the central and western regions.
With the increasing production capacity of polyolefin in China, the external dependence is gradually decreasing. After 2009, with the production of foreign petrochemical equipment in large quantities, the appreciation of the yuan accelerated and domestic stimulus policies were implemented, the imports of polyolefins were significantly increased, especially for polyethylene. We expect imports to continue to grow modestly in the coming years as the appreciation of the renminbi remains unchanged and domestic demand will continue to grow. However, the import growth rate will gradually slow down and even decline due to the gradual release of the future coal production capacity. As of 2014, China's imports of polyethylene are expected to be about 905 million tons, and the import volume is expected to reach 10 million tons in 2015. In 2014, the import volume of polypropylene is about 3.63 million tons, and with the rapid expansion of polypropylene, it is expected that the import volume of polypropylene will fall to 300-3.3 million tons in 2015. Polyolefine import dependence at about 33% in 2014 in China, domestic supply gap still exists, at the same time, domestic plastic raw material is given priority to with gm material, less competitive, so generally small polyolefin overall exports.
Plastic products industry is the main downstream of the polyolefin industry in China. In 2014, China's plastics industry continued to develop steadily, with a cumulative output of 73.878 million tons in 2014, an increase of 7.4% over last year. With "plastic strip", the advancement of "plastic and wood", China's plastic products production in recent years the development speed is much higher than the world plastics industry average growth level, industry growing, is making plastic industry in our country from big to strong. But there are still many problems in the plastics industry. Due to the structural problems of the industry, the low level of products, small enterprises and scattered conflicts still stand out. The homogeneity of the product in the industry and the competitive price of similar low prices are still spreading. Industrial upgrading of plastic products is imperative, which requires the company to be forward-looking and scientific and efficient operation and management.
According to customs data, China's plastic products exported 9.51 million tons in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 6.09 percent. But the growth of exports in the past five years has shown signs of slowing down, broadly divided into four areas. First, the low grade product in plastic products is larger than the overall technical level. In addition, the relevant standards of the domestic plastic products industry lagged behind, while international standards became more stringent, causing the export of some plastic products in China to be blocked. Second, enterprises are facing difficulties in financing, rising labor costs and excessively rapid growth of raw material prices, resulting in declining profit margins in the plastic products industry. Third, China's traditional industrial advantages, which have long been built with low labor force, are gradually losing ground compared with Vietnam, India and other countries, and the pressure of export competition is becoming more and more obvious. Fourth, the slowdown in global growth has dragged down the growth of plastic consumption to a certain extent.
From the above analysis, the pattern of Chinese polyolefins industry is gradually changing:
1. The production capacity of domestic polyolefin will continue to grow in the coming years. By 2015, the production capacity of polyolefin will reach 3.79 million tons, of which the new production capacity of polyethylene is 1.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of polypropylene will be 2.59 million tons.
2. With the rapid growth of polyolefin production capacity, the import of polyolefin will gradually decrease and the self-sufficiency rate will be greatly increased.
3. Polyolefin industry capacity distribution, the current state in the vigorously promote the development of the Midwest, with the gradually mature of coal to olefin technology and promotion, the late polyolefin industry will gradually shift to the central and western regions;
4. With the steady growth of China's macro economy, the plastic products industry will continue to develop rapidly, and the production of plastic products is expected to reach about 72 million tons in 2015.
