The prospect of polypropylene is a hot topic to break sinopec's oil monopoly
The prospect of polypropylene is a hot topic to break sinopec's oil monopoly
In 2014 China plastics industry conference in a few days ago, the development prospects of polypropylene triggered a heated debate, the participating experts generally believe that the future sinopec and petrochina in the upstream of the monopoly may be broken.
Polypropylene is the second largest consumption synthetic resin in China. The current "two supremacy" patterns in polypropylene industry as a whole, because of its upstream belongs to oligopoly industry, rendering is given priority to with sinopec, petrochina, cnooc, private, joint ventures and competitive situation of coal chemical industry enterprise is complementary; And downstream is very dispersive, belong to complete competition industry, lack pricing power.
Blonde technology co., LTD., general manager of nan-jing li said: "due to upstream to oligopolistic industry, pricing power by concentrated in petrochina, sinopec and other basic decision, upstream suppliers for the policy guidance of petrochemical factory, price has a big impact."
The whole industry is characterized by a one-sentence summary, which means that "the supplier is the boss, then we can only be the grandson", which is the current status of the industry.
The entrepreneurs, led by li nanjing, expect the new coal chemical industry to break down in recent years. According to nan-jing li, polypropylene production in 2013, according to the enterprise property statistics, sinopec accounted for the highest, about 50% of the national total output can, oil and other companies share in the rest of the world. As the national energy strategy is dominated by "coal oil", the production of the coal-based olefins will be put into production, and the monopoly of sinopec and petrochina will gradually be challenged.
In 2014-2015 is still a peak capacity of polypropylene plant, sinopec and petrochina expansion speed is gradually weakening, and coal to olefin, joint ventures with local enterprises, large capacity unit become the main capacity expansion. It is estimated that the capacity of private and joint ventures will exceed 50% by 2015. Sinopec and China oil monopoly will be broken and supply will be diversified.
According to liao chengtao, chairman of Beijing silian venture chemical co., LTD., the future should be the three pillars of sinopec, petrochina and coal chemical industry. However, with the increase of coal chemical capacity, the supply is greatly increased, and the price and profitability of future polypropylene are also inevitable.
Cheng Xiaoyong analysis, and according to Po shing futures in the short to medium term, due to propylene prices, rising costs will drive enterprise an increase in the price of PP, but the more overcapacity will in the afternoon, polypropylene consumption level is difficult to have a optimistic expectations.
The global level, IHS chemical said in April, as a new designed to produce propylene production capacity, in the next five years the world propylene production capacity will increase 30 million tons, supplies will be significantly more than expected demand growth. At home, with the development of new technologies such as olefins and propane dehydrogenation of coal, 2014-2016 is the peak production of polypropylene in China. By the end of the year, polypropylene will produce 2.4 million tons of new production. Expansion of capacity will lead to a relatively abundant or even surplus of polypropylene supply and demand.
Cui kezeng, deputy general manager of zhuochuang information co., LTD., also believes that the coal-making olefins will have an impact on the competitive situation of the whole polypropylene. Polypropylene device in the field of coal chemical industry has a very distinctive features, polypropylene is very complete, relevant enterprises because of huge investment, in the pursuit of competitive advantage, in terms of downstream products pursue instead of supporting construction, which makes the coal chemical industry enterprise in the field of polypropylene product segmentation has a certain competitive advantage. In terms of price, in the past, the price of quality products has been largely priced. Now, the price of the coolefin can be reduced to a certain extent, and the price level of the whole polyolefin market can be reduced."
There are also changes in the domestic economic environment affecting polypropylene. From the perspective of consumption, the market of knitting products is the largest consumer market of polypropylene in China, including fertilizer, grain and cement packaging, accounting for about 30% of the total consumption of polypropylene. And injection molding products are the second largest area of the consumption of polypropylene, accounting for 29% of total consumption.
Now, in the second quarter of the real estate depth adjustment risks are increasing, in the first quarter after significantly negative growth in real estate development investment and site area, the central bank also in monitoring the real estate loan risk of default. Property construction will affect the consumption of cement, cars and household appliances, and the consumption of polypropylene in fabrics and injection products faces potentially huge risks.
"At present, the whole production capacity is increasing, and many of them are low-end products," li said at the meeting. "special coal is made of alkenes, and the additional capacity is in the same piece." I think there is a gap between the introduction of some tools and the technical performance. As low-end products continue to increase, the opening rate is falling due to poor market and poor demand.
