Europe cannot replicate the us shale revolution
Europe cannot replicate the us shale revolution
Recently, the institute of sustainable development and international relations in Paris, France issued a titled "unconventional wisdom: American shale gas economic analysis and its impact on Europe's report, the think shale gas influence on American manufacturing" little ", but also means a smaller to Europe. In the short to medium term, at least, European entrepreneurs will give up hope of change.
The report's main conclusions are as follows: although us gas prices are low, they can only play a short-term role, and unconventional oil and gas changes have little impact on the us macro economy. The researchers estimate that the long-term impact of shale gas on U.S. GDP from 2012 to 2035 is estimated at around 0.84%. The long-term growth rate is very small compared with the annual growth rate of 1.4 percent in the United States. The researchers also estimated that the short-term stimulus effect of unconventional oil and gas reforms, from 2007-08 to 2012, accounted for 0.88 percent of U.S. GDP. The unconventional oil and gas revolution has little impact on American manufacturing.
Report said that the U.S. shale gas boom offers many advantages, such as household energy costs are lower, at the same time help gas labor-intensive manufacturing industries, such as plastic, petrochemical and chemical fertilizer, etc.) to enhance their competitiveness, but these industries accounted for only 1.2% of GDP and 3.3% of the total manufacturing sector in the United States. The net exports of these gas-intensive industries rose from $10.5 billion in 2006 to $27.2 billion in 2012. That compares with the us manufacturing trade deficit from $662.2 billion in 2006 to $779.4 billion in 2012.
However, the us shale gas revolution may bring some competitive advantages to the us basic chemical industry, but not the whole industry. So there is no evidence that shale gas is driving the revival of America's overall manufacturing sector. Without further policy, the us shale gas revolution will not bring significant, sustainable low-carbon options to the us energy mix, nor will it ensure us energy security. Based on current policy reference scenarios, us emissions remain at current levels to 2040 and are clearly not contributing enough to mitigate global climate change. In the forecast period, oil imports will continue to increase. If you provide some additional policy support, in the short term may promote the transformation from coal to gas, but also has a risk, unconventional oil and gas will change the limit in the energy and emissions intensive capital markets further.
Europe is unlikely to replicate the us experience in shale gas development, based on unconventional oil and gas extraction. Shale gas is likely to play a short-term positive role in helping eastern European countries reduce their imports of fuel from Russia and develop their own infrastructure. But the impact of shale gas will be "negligible", in terms of revitalising European manufacturing and the economy as a whole. Europe is unlikely to repeat the scale of unconventional oil and gas extraction in the us, and there is uncertainty about the size of the European shale.
However, in a modest development, shale gas extraction in Europe is estimated to be about 10 billion cubic feet between 2030 and 2035, or 3 to 10 percent of European gas demand. As a result, European dependence on fossil fuel imports will continue to increase, and fossil fuel prices will remain largely dependent on international markets. Shale gas extraction will not have a significant impact on Europe's macroeconomic or competitiveness between 2030 and 2035.
In response to its energy, climate and manufacturing competitiveness challenges, the eu needs energy efficiency, innovation, low-carbon energy strategies and a stronger internal market. Shale gas for heavily dependent on coal country or Russian gas can be used as a potential supplement, but for the eu energy policy direction of the current strategy is not an alternative way.
